When it comes to investing in the stock market, there are few absolutes. One certainty, however, is that attempting to accurately predict the day-to-day movements of the market is doomed to fail. Global markets are too unpredictable. Economic fundamentals are constantly changing. And investor sentiment can turn on a dime.
No one enjoys watching their 401(k) account balances decrease month after month during a market decline. And it can be hard to stay the course with a balanced portfolio allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds when markets surge and we hear friends talk about how they have doubled their savings by investing all their money in the latest hot stock. It can be tempting to try to buy high and sell low to take advantage of market swings.
Over time, especially during a sustained market run-up or in the aftermath of a major market correction, your portfolio’s asset allocation can gradually but dramatically shift from its intended target. This can result in a potentially harmful imbalance in which you may unwittingly take on too much risk after market highs and too little risk during market lows—the exact opposite of what you had envisioned.
No one—except the rare contrarian investor—is ever happy about a falling stock market. Large, rapid corrections can wreak havoc on both taxable and tax-deferred portfolios. Market corrections can be especially troublesome for investors approaching retirement who may not have enough time for the markets to fully recover before they begin transitioning from saving to spending.
When you’re investing for goals that are seven or more years in the future—goals such as saving for your retirement or a young child’s education—it’s easy to get distracted by more pressing needs or to lose motivation to keep saving. It’s helpful to think of the process as being more like a marathon than a sprint.
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